Blackburn 1–2 Sheffield Utd
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.60–0.47.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Blackburn to win (37%); it finished with Sheffield Utd to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Blackburn created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.5 and the shot count agreed (19–7, 5–3 on target). Blackburn got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 3) and Blackburn held 63% of the ball. Sheffield Utd's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.5 xG, 3 of 7 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–2 flatters Sheffield Utd — on chances created, Blackburn shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Blackburn 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Pears (G)
- 2 R. Alebiosu (D)
- 4 Yuri Ribeiro (D)
- 6 Tom Atcheson (D)
- 8 Sam Morsy (M)
- 10 T. Cantwell (M)
- 11 J. Fevrier (M)
- 15 S. McLoughlin (D)
- 21 O. Afolayan (F)
- 25 R. Morishita (M)
- 31 Kristi Montgomery (M)
Bench: H. Pickering, J. Garrett, A. Forshaw, H. Carter, Gady Beyuku, B. Tóth, F. Vare, Harry Lister, Harvey Higgins
Sheffield Utd 4-4-2
- 1 M. Cooper (G)
- 3 S. McCallum (M)
- 5 J. Tanganga (D)
- 7 J. Rothwell (M)
- 8 H. Choudhury (D)
- 9 T. Cannon (F)
- 11 R. Donovan (M)
- 15 L. Kitching (D)
- 22 B. Brereton (F)
- 30 R. Norrington-Davies (D)
- 42 Sydie Peck (M)
Bench: J. Riedewald, O. Arblaster, J. Ayew, P. Bamford, J. Baptiste, T. Campbell, A. Davies, M. Doherty, K. Phillips
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Blackburn or draw | 1.59 | 58.7% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance Sheffield Utd or draw | 1.36 | 68.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.7% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Blackburn | 2.15 | 43.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sheffield Utd | 1.64 | 56.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 50.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 30.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Blackburn over 1.5 team goals | 2.55 | 36.5% | +1.5 pts |
| Sheffield Utd over 1.5 team goals | 2.15 | 43.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Blackburn clean sheet | 3.70 | 25.3% | +1.9 pts |
| Sheffield Utd clean sheet | 3.17 | 29.5% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.20 · 0-1 7.99 · 1-2 8.48 · 1-0 9.41 · 2-1 9.89
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-08 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 26 | Sheffield Utd | 1-3 | Blackburn |
| 21 Oct 25 | Blackburn | 1-3 | Sheffield Utd |