Bolton 2–3 West Ham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.56–2.22.
The brain read
West Ham created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–2.2, with the shot count roughly even (13–11, 6–7 on target). On the balance of chances, the 2–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- 3 C. Forino-Joseph (D)
- 7 K. Dong (M)
- 8 J. Sheehan (M)
- 10 S. Dalby (F)
- 16 S. Iling-Junior (M)
- 18 E. Toal (D)
- 20 Ruben Rodrigues (M)
- 21 E. Erhahon (M)
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal (D)
- 25 M. Conway (D)
- 31 G. Bazunu (G)
Bench: X. Simons, J. Nelson, J. McAtee, A. Ito, R. Hardie, T. Gale, B. Davies, J. Bonham, T. Bair
West Ham 4-4-1-1
- 1 M. Hermansen (G)
- 2 K. Walker-Peters (D)
- 3 M. Kilman (D)
- 7 A. Engels (M)
- 14 D. Mukasa (M)
- 15 K. Mavropanos (D)
- 17 M. Kanté (M)
- 19 Pablo (F)
- 20 J. Bowen (M)
- 30 O. Scarles (D)
- 35 E. Austbö (M)
Bench: J. Veltman, M. Solomon, J. Piroe, L. Orford, Morato, K. Lamadrid, F. Herrick, A. Boiro, J. Ajala
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 2.29 | 41.0% | -3.4 pts |
| Double chance West Ham or draw | 1.16 | 80.9% | +2.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 78.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bolton | 3.73 | 24.7% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — West Ham | 1.23 | 75.3% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 81.0% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 60.8% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.38 | 39.7% | +3.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 58.1% | +1.4 pts |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 3.05 | 30.5% | -0.1 pts |
| West Ham over 1.5 team goals | 1.52 | 61.3% | +4.9 pts |
| Bolton clean sheet | 6.38 | 14.7% | +0.1 pts |
| West Ham clean sheet | 2.66 | 34.8% | -0.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 7.58 · 1-1 7.77 · 0-1 8.56 · 0-2 8.65 · 1-3 10.66
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-08 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).