Real Madrid 2–1 Inter
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.91–1.83.
The brain read
The xG read 2.9–1.8 in Real Madrid's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 16–21 overall and 8–7 on target went Inter's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Inter held 64% of the ball. Real Madrid's finishing let them down — 2 from 2.9 xG despite 8 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.