Southampton 3–1 Swansea
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.44–1.22.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Southampton to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 42% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1.2, shots 15–10 with 4–2 on target. Southampton got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 4). Southampton's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.4 xG, 4 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- 1 Daniel Peretz (G)
- 3 R. Manning (D)
- 4 F. Downes (M)
- 7 Léo Scienza (M)
- 9 C. Larin (F)
- 10 F. Azaz (M)
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 14 J. Bree (D)
- 15 N. Wood-Gordon (D)
- 18 T. Fellows (M)
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse (M)
Bench: L. Dobbin, Cameron Bragg, Z. Abbott, S. Edozie, G. Long, K. Matsuki, D. Mubama, Welington, J. Stephens
Swansea 4-2-3-1
- 4 J. Fulton (M)
- 5 B. Cabango (D)
- 6 M. Stamenić (M)
- 8 E. Just (M)
- 9 Z. Vipotnik (F)
- 14 J. Tymon (D)
- 22 L. Vigouroux (G)
- 23 S. Welsh (D)
- 26 F. Lissah (D)
- 30 Joseph Okopu (M)
- 49 M. Yeo (M)
Bench: Eom Ji-Sung, S. Eustáquio, A. Fisher, A. Idah, J. Key, Tiago Parente, Ronald, J. Seelt, M. Widell
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 1.22 | 76.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.94 | 48.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 74.9% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 1.36 | 68.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 2.91 | 31.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 55.1% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 34.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.64 | 56.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 1.77 | 52.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 2.96 | 31.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Southampton clean sheet | 2.71 | 34.2% | +0.5 pts |
| Swansea clean sheet | 4.88 | 19.2% | +0.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.63 · 2-1 7.59 · 1-0 7.65 · 2-0 8.97 · 1-2 11.90
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-08 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 26 | Swansea | 1-2 | Southampton |
| 18 Oct 25 | Southampton | 0-0 | Swansea |