Watford 2–1 Preston
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.26–2.44.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Watford to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Preston created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–2.4, with the shot count roughly even (15–18, 5–6 on target). Preston's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.4 xG despite 6 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–1 flatters Watford — on chances created, Preston shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Watford 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Ravaglia (G)
- 3 S. Coulibaly (D)
- 4 K. Keben (D)
- 5 H. Kyprianou (M)
- 6 M. Pollock (D)
- 11 R. Vata (M)
- 20 M. Doumbia (F)
- 21 Amin Nabizada (M)
- 22 M. Payero (M)
- 23 O. Traoré (D)
- 39 E. Kayembe (M)
Bench: D. Bachmann, Iker Bravo, L. Kjerrumgaard, O. Maamma, S. Mavididi, S. Walker, J. Zemura, Albert Eames
Preston 5-3-2
- 1 D. Iversen (G)
- 3 A. Vukčević (D)
- 4 H. Clarke (D)
- 7 A. Devine (M)
- 10 C. Lang (F)
- 14 J. Storey (D)
- 15 J. Thompson (M)
- 19 L. Gibson (D)
- 24 O. Offiah (D)
- 27 L. Leroy (M)
- 38 J. Kenny (F)
Bench: L. Lindsay, S. Mills, A. Moran, L. Nicholls, T. Small, C. Wiley, L. Gibbs, J. Erabi, D. Burgzorg
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.29 | 72.8% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance Preston or draw | 1.72 | 54.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 72.9% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 1.49 | 62.2% | +2.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Preston | 2.46 | 37.8% | -2.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.89 | 50.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.19 | 29.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.9% | +1.5 pts |
| Preston over 1.5 team goals | 2.88 | 32.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Watford clean sheet | 2.77 | 33.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Preston clean sheet | 4.14 | 22.5% | +0.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.16 · 1-0 7.29 · 2-1 7.99 · 2-0 9.68 · 0-1 9.84
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-08 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 26 | Preston | 2-2 | Watford |
| 25 Nov 25 | Watford | 1-1 | Preston |