Burgos 3–1 AD Ceuta FC
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.85–0.91.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.8–0.9, shots 7–12 with 2–3 on target. AD Ceuta FC got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 4). Burgos's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.8 xG, 2 of 7 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Burgos 4-4-2
- 3 Ignasi Vilarrasa (D)
- 6 Sergio González (D)
- 7 Jon Karrikaburu (F)
- 8 Grego (D)
- 12 Unai Vencedor (M)
- 13 Ander Cantero (G)
- 14 David González (M)
- 16 Curro Sánchez (F)
- 19 Javi Llabrés (M)
- 20 José Gragera (M)
- 23 Alberto Dadie (D)
Bench: Mario Cantero, Marcelo Expósito, Álex Forés, P. Galdames, Bruno Iribarne, S. Lencinas, Oier Luengo, Brais Martínez, I. Martinez, Víctor Mollejo, Saúl del Cerro, K. Appin
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
- 1 Pedro López (G)
- 3 José Matos (D)
- 6 Carlos Hernández (D)
- 7 Alejandro Camacho Ramírez (F)
- 8 Kuki (M)
- 14 Y. Bodiger (D)
- 16 Redru (D)
- 17 Mawuli Mensah (M)
- 19 E. Sevikyan (F)
- 29 O. Sadik (F)
- 32 Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro (M)
Bench: Guille Vallejo, Álex Meléndez, D. Mas, U. Konare, Joaquín, Jordi Escobar, Arick Betancourt, Toni Abad
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Burgos or draw | 1.14 | 82.2% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance AD Ceuta FC or draw | 2.22 | 42.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Burgos | 1.22 | 76.3% | +2.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — AD Ceuta FC | 3.93 | 23.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 27.0% | -3.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.93 | 47.9% | -3.5 pts |
| Burgos over 1.5 team goals | 1.82 | 51.6% | -1.6 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC over 1.5 team goals | 4.33 | 21.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Burgos clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | +0.0 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.75 · 1-1 6.67 · 2-0 6.92 · 2-1 7.60 · 0-0 8.90
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-11 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr 26 | Burgos | 1-1 | AD Ceuta FC |
| 29 Nov 25 | AD Ceuta FC | 1-0 | Burgos |