Montpellier 1–0 PAU
What the chances were worth
The brain read
An even contest on the shot picture — shots 12–11, 4–2 on target, 6–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Montpellier held 74% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Montpellier 4-1-4-1
- 3 Naoufel El Hannach (D)
- 5 F. Tardieu (M)
- 6 Y. Mouanga (D)
- 11 M. Camara (F)
- 15 J. Laporte (D)
- 17 T. Sainte-Luce (M)
- 18 N. Pays (M)
- 19 N. Mukiele (M)
- 27 D. Meddah (D)
- 31 S. Ngapandouetnbu (G)
- 90 Gregory Ayem (M)
Bench: Hichem Abderrebi, Daryll Benlahlou, T. Chennahi, V. DžodiÄ, J. Hatchi, Lacine Megnan-Pave, Everson, N. Vidal-Cartoux
PAU 5-3-2
- 1 B. Maubleu (G)
- 2 T. Pouilly (D)
- 5 L. Rajot (M)
- 6 C. Fall (M)
- 7 H. Benali (F)
- 8 S. Basse (D)
- 9 B. Leye (F)
- 21 J. Benet (M)
- 23 A. Briançon (D)
- 29 G. Paquiez (D)
- 97 A. Abdallah (D)
Bench: M. Tourraine, J. Sebas, E. Salles, T. Saettel, R. Baheng, A. Lefebvre, L. Gadegbeku, A. Dodote, B. Brahimi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Montpellier or draw | 1.21 | 77.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance PAU or draw | 1.90 | 49.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Montpellier | 1.35 | 68.7% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — PAU | 2.97 | 31.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 73.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 49.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.19 | 29.2% | -3.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 51.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Montpellier over 1.5 team goals | 1.92 | 49.1% | -2.6 pts |
| PAU over 1.5 team goals | 3.44 | 27.3% | -3.3 pts |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | +3.7 pts |
| PAU clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.45 · 1-0 6.86 · 2-1 7.86 · 2-0 8.58 · 0-0 10.45
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-11 17:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).