Rennes 1–0 Marseille
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Rennes to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 41% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Rennes carried the greater threat — shots 20–13, 7–5 on target, 13–8 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Rennes 4-3-3
- 4 C. Cresswell (D)
- 9 E. Lepaul (F)
- 10 L. Blas (F)
- 18 M. Nagida (D)
- 21 V. Rongier (M)
- 24 A. Rouault (D)
- 28 A. Thomasson (M)
- 30 B. Samba (G)
- 45 M. Camara (M)
- 90 I. Soumaré (F)
- 95 P. Frankowski (D)
Bench: Q. Merlin, B. Reynolds, S. Szymański, Mousa Tamari, A. Ait Boudlal, B. Dia, H. Do Marcolino, N. Lemaître, Eliezer Mayenda
Marseille 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. de Lange (G)
- 4 C. Egan-Riley (D)
- 7 A. Gomes (M)
- 8 H. Abdelli (M)
- 9 A. Gouiri (F)
- 14 Igor Paixão (M)
- 21 N. Aguerd (D)
- 22 T. Weah (D)
- 23 P. Højbjerg (M)
- 33 Emerson (D)
- 77 A. Harit (M)
Bench: D. Cornelius, U. Garcia, N. Maupay, B. Meité, T. Mmadi, F. Moumbagna, T. Vermot, K. Abdallah, Nouhoum Kamissoko
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 1.35 | 70.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance Marseille or draw | 1.78 | 53.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rennes | 1.51 | 61.8% | +3.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Marseille | 2.43 | 38.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 64.0% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.18 | 43.9% | +3.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 65.3% | +1.6 pts |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 1.65 | 57.2% | +4.0 pts |
| Marseille over 1.5 team goals | 2.21 | 42.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Rennes clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Marseille clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.80 · 2-1 8.46 · 2-2 10.55 · 1-0 11.45 · 1-2 11.45
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-11 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Marseille | 3-1 | Rennes |
| 15 Aug 25 | Rennes | 1-0 | Marseille |