Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04
What the chances were worth
The brain read
An even contest on the shot picture — shots 21–19, 8–10 on target, 18–11 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Union Berlin held 66% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Union Berlin 4-1-2-1-2
- 1 F. Rønnow (G)
- 2 F. Uduokhai (D)
- 6 A. Kemlein (M)
- 8 R. Khedira (M)
- 9 Livan Burcu (M)
- 11 Jeong Woo-Yeong (F)
- 14 L. Querfeld (D)
- 15 T. Rothe (D)
- 18 J. Juranović (D)
- 20 M. Aebischer (M)
- 29 E. Latte Lath (F)
Bench: R. Skov, T. Skarke, A. Schäfer, M. Raab, M. LjubiÄiÄ, J. Haberer, Linus Guther, C. Trimmel, Z. Van Den Bosch
FC Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
- 1 L. Karius (G)
- 4 H. Kuruçay (D)
- 5 T. Becker (D)
- 8 R. Gosens (M)
- 13 S. Tanaka (M)
- 19 K. Karaman (F)
- 20 J. Adamu (M)
- 21 D. Ljubičić (M)
- 23 S. El-Faouzi (M)
- 24 A. Aouchiche (M)
- 25 N. Katić (D)
Bench: M. Wöber, M. Ayhan, J. Bachmann, Vitalie Becker, J. Dina Ebimbe, E. Džeko, Hwang Hee-Chan, K. Müller, L. Vozar
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Union Berlin or draw | 1.42 | 66.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance FC Schalke 04 or draw | 1.57 | 60.2% | +3.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 73.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Union Berlin | 1.71 | 54.3% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — FC Schalke 04 | 2.03 | 45.7% | +3.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 79.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 58.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.51 | 37.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 61.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 team goals | 1.99 | 47.6% | -3.1 pts |
| FC Schalke 04 over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 43.0% | +1.0 pts |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -2.0 pts |
| FC Schalke 04 clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +1.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.47 · 2-1 8.95 · 1-2 9.95 · 2-2 10.38 · 1-0 10.42
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-11 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).