Venezia 2–4 Fiorentina
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–4; by chance quality the match ran 0.71–3.35.
The brain read
Fiorentina created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–3.4 and the shot count agreed (11–19, 4–10 on target). Fiorentina got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 9) and Venezia held 62% of the ball. Venezia's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–4 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Venezia 3-5-2
- 1 Filip Stanković (G)
- 2 Matias Moreno (D)
- 3 Joel Schingtienne (D)
- 5 Ridgeciano Haps (D)
- 6 Gianluca Busio (M)
- 10 John Yeboah (F)
- 18 Antoine Hainaut (M)
- 19 Simon Sohm (M)
- 20 Richie Sagrado (M)
- 45 Akor Adams (F)
- 71 Kike Pérez (M)
Bench: Lorenzo Montipò, Redouane Halhal, Rufai Mohammed, Ale Gomes, Juan Jesus, Thierry Correia, Lorenzo Berardi, Kornel Lisman, Toni Fernández, Lamine Fanne, Simone Panada, Þórir Jóhann Helgason, Pasquale Mazzocchi, Albion Rrahmani, Lion Lauberbach
Fiorentina 4-3-3
- 3 Radu Drăguşin (D)
- 6 Luca Ranieri (D)
- 14 Arthur Atta (M)
- 20 Álex Jiménez (D)
- 23 Beto (F)
- 25 Alieu Njie (F)
- 27 Cher Ndour (M)
- 30 Franco Mastantuono (F)
- 33 Viery (D)
- 43 David De Gea (G)
- 44 Nicolò Fagioli (M)
Bench: Oliver Christensen, Luca Lezzerini, Víctor Valdepeñas, Dodô, Marin Pongračić, João Mário, Pedro Gonçalves, Christ Inao Oulaï, Marco Brescianini, Mateo Pellegrino, Wilfried Gnonto
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Venezia or draw | 1.52 | 62.5% | +4.1 pts |
| Double chance Fiorentina or draw | 1.42 | 66.5% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 71.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Venezia | 1.98 | 46.9% | +3.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Fiorentina | 1.75 | 53.1% | -3.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 77.2% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54.7% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.70 | 34.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 59.4% | +1.6 pts |
| Venezia over 1.5 team goals | 2.29 | 41.2% | +3.4 pts |
| Fiorentina over 1.5 team goals | 2.14 | 44.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Venezia clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.6 pts |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.19 · 1-2 8.85 · 2-1 9.70 · 0-1 9.75 · 1-0 10.62
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-11 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).