1. FC Köln 1–1 Werder Bremen
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured 1. FC Köln to win (49%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
An even contest on the shot picture — shots 15–14, 6–5 on target, 9–11 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
1. FC Köln 4-5-1
- 1 M. Schwäbe (G)
- 5 T. Krauß (M)
- 6 E. Skhiri (M)
- 14 G. Mensah (D)
- 17 A. Castro-Montes (D)
- 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (D)
- 24 L. Lochoshvili (D)
- 27 T. Dallinga (F)
- 30 M. Bülter (M)
- 37 L. Maina (M)
- 47 M. Moore (M)
Bench: R. Ache, S. El Mala, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler, J. Schmied, S. Sebulonsen, B. Sosa, J. Thielmann, R. Zieler
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
- 1 K. Hein (G)
- 2 O. Deman (D)
- 5 A. Pieper (D)
- 10 N. Füllkrug (F)
- 13 Arthur (D)
- 15 L. Reis (M)
- 17 M. Grüll (M)
- 18 E. Dinkçi (M)
- 20 Chuky San José (M)
- 32 M. Friedl (D)
- 44 Y. Regeer (M)
Bench: Mick Schmetgens, Dariusz Stalmach, N. Stark, M. Weiser, O. Wójcik, A. Schlager, Salim Amani Musah, C. Itten, P. Erevbenagie
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1. FC Köln or draw | 1.31 | 71.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 1.77 | 53.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 75.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Köln | 1.51 | 61.8% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Werder Bremen | 2.45 | 38.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 61.7% | +2.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 41.1% | +2.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.47 | 63.4% | +2.0 pts |
| 1. FC Köln over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 2.29 | 41.1% | +1.5 pts |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.24 · 2-1 8.34 · 1-0 10.36 · 2-2 10.73 · 1-2 10.76
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 26 | 1. FC Köln | 3-1 | Werder Bremen |
| 29 Nov 25 | Werder Bremen | 1-1 | 1. FC Köln |