1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 43% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
1899 Hoffenheim carried the greater threat — shots 20–16, 8–5 on target, 12–13 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
1899 Hoffenheim 4-4-2
- 1 O. Baumann (G)
- 5 O. Kabak (D)
- 7 L. Avdullahu (M)
- 10 A. Hložek (F)
- 14 A. Daghim (M)
- 18 W. Burger (M)
- 19 T. Lemperle (F)
- 20 B. Conté (M)
- 21 A. Hajdari (D)
- 34 V. Coufal (D)
- 39 M. Rots (D)
Bench: F. Asllani, Nathan De Cat, V. Gendrey, R. Hranáč, A. Kramarić, K. Machida, Max Moerstedt, L. Philipp, P. Wimmer
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
- 1 F. Bredlow (G)
- 3 R. Hendriks (D)
- 4 J. Vagnoman (M)
- 6 A. Stiller (M)
- 7 M. Mittelstädt (M)
- 9 E. Demirović (M)
- 10 C. Führich (M)
- 17 D. Pejčinović (F)
- 21 G. Prömel (M)
- 24 J. Chabot (D)
- 29 Finn Jeltsch (D)
Bench: A. Karazor, J. Leweling, L. Sauer, Y. Spalt, L. Stergiou, D. Undav, B. El Khannouss, M. Funk, Maximilian Tobias Herwerth
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw | 1.45 | 64.8% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 1.60 | 58.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 76.3% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.75 | 53.5% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfB Stuttgart | 2.02 | 46.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.06 | 87.7% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.31 | 72.2% | +5.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.3% | +6.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.29 | 72.5% | +4.7 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.61 | 58.3% | +5.0 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 1.72 | 54.8% | +4.5 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.98 · 2-1 9.54 · 2-2 9.55 · 1-2 10.29 · 3-2 14.54
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3-3 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 20 Dec 25 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-0 | 1899 Hoffenheim |