Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Aston Villa to win (44%); it finished with Nottingham Forest to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Nottingham Forest carried the greater threat — shots 7–22, 5–7 on target, 6–14 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
- 1 Z. Suzuki (G)
- 3 V. Lindelöf (D)
- 6 R. Barkley (M)
- 7 J. McGinn (M)
- 8 B. Kamara (M)
- 10 E. Buendía (M)
- 11 N. Jackson (F)
- 14 Pau Torres (D)
- 22 I. Maatsen (D)
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka (D)
- 53 George Hemmings (M)
Bench: I. Mbaye, T. Abraham, A. Garnacho, Alysson Edward, J. Manzambi, L. Bogarde, M. Ruggeri, T. Mings, M. Bizot
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
- 2 O. Diomande (D)
- 3 N. Williams (M)
- 5 Murillo (D)
- 10 M. Gibbs-White (M)
- 14 D. Ndoye (M)
- 19 L. Delap (F)
- 21 X. Schlager (M)
- 24 J. McAtee (M)
- 26 M. Sels (G)
- 27 D. Muñoz (M)
- 34 O. Aina (D)
Bench: C. Wood, A. Kalimuendo, John, L. Netz, C. Hudson-Odoi, I. Sangaré, N. Domínguez, R. Yates, Igor Jesus
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 1.33 | 70.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw | 1.64 | 57.6% | +3.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Aston Villa | 1.59 | 59.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nottingham Forest | 2.29 | 41.0% | +3.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 72.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.23 | 29.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.6% | +0.9 pts |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 2.18 | 43.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 team goals | 2.80 | 33.6% | +2.0 pts |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.18 · 1-0 7.72 · 2-1 8.60 · 0-1 9.79 · 0-0 10.57
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 26 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Aston Villa |
| 03 Jan 26 | Aston Villa | 3-1 | Nottingham Forest |