Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.22–1.10.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Atalanta to win (44%); it finished with Cagliari to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1.1, shots 22–5 with 4–5 on target. Atalanta got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 3). Cagliari's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.1 xG, 5 of 5 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Atalanta 4-3-3
- 3 Odilon Kossounou (D)
- 9 Gianluca Scamacca (F)
- 10 Lazar Samardžić (M)
- 11 Jonathan Rowe (F)
- 13 Éderson (M)
- 16 Raoul Bellanova (D)
- 17 Charles De Ketelaere (F)
- 19 Franck Kessié (M)
- 23 Sead Kolašinac (D)
- 29 Marco Carnesecchi (G)
- 42 Giorgio Scalvini (D)
Bench: Thomas Pompei, Marco Sportiello, Relja Obrić, Thomas Kristensen, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Nicola Zalewski, Eljif Elmas, Mario Pašalić, Davide Zappacosta, Giacomo Raspadori, Nikola Krstović
Cagliari 4-3-2-1
- 1 Elia Caprile (G)
- 2 Zé Pedro (D)
- 4 Alessandro Romano (M)
- 6 Harry Winks (M)
- 8 Michel Adopo (M)
- 10 Jacopo Fazzini (M)
- 14 Alessandro Deiola (D)
- 15 Juan Rodríguez (D)
- 31 Paul Mendy (F)
- 33 Adam Obert (D)
- 70 Daniel Maldini (M)
Bench: Boris Radunović, Alen Sherri, Yerry Mina, Yukinari Sugawara, Raphael Kofler, Giuseppe Aurelio, Riccardo Ciervo, Ivan Sulev, Yanis Massolin, Joseph Liteta, Roberto Gagliardini, Demi Akarakiri, Alieu Fadera, Kevin Carlos Omoruyi, Alessandro Sugamele
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Atalanta or draw | 1.17 | 80.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Double chance Cagliari or draw | 2.15 | 43.9% | +4.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Atalanta | 1.25 | 74.6% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cagliari | 3.67 | 25.4% | +4.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.18 | 29.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 51.1% | +3.7 pts |
| Atalanta over 1.5 team goals | 1.78 | 52.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Cagliari over 1.5 team goals | 3.87 | 24.2% | +3.8 pts |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.53 · 1-1 6.83 · 2-0 7.77 · 2-1 7.77 · 0-0 10.65
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 26 | Cagliari | 3-2 | Atalanta |
| 13 Dec 25 | Atalanta | 2-1 | Cagliari |