Auxerre 1–0 Nice
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Auxerre to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 42% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Auxerre carried the greater threat — shots 11–12, 7–4 on target, 11–7 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Nice held 68% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Auxerre 4-2-3-1
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary (M)
- 4 A. Tuanzebe (D)
- 5 K. Danois (M)
- 9 C. Archer (F)
- 10 D. Namaso (M)
- 15 C. Makosso (D)
- 22 F. Oppegård (M)
- 23 M. Diop (G)
- 27 L. Sy (D)
- 46 A. Piedfort (M)
- 92 C. Akpa (D)
Bench: E. Legros, P. Nardi, Aristide Zossou, N. Ahamada, S. Diomandé, L. Dioubate, P. Ekwah, R. Faivre, R. Mandengue
Nice 3-4-2-1
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem (D)
- 7 G. Hein (M)
- 9 M. Amoura (F)
- 11 E. Wahi (M)
- 23 Y. Diouf (G)
- 27 N. Nkounkou (M)
- 28 A. Witsel (M)
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi (D)
- 39 D. Coulibaly (M)
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye (D)
- 92 J. Clauss (M)
Bench: E. Pereira, H. Boudaoui, T. Boulhendi, A. Camara, S. Diop, A. Abdi, I. Jansson, D. Morana, N. Ngoumou
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Auxerre or draw | 1.52 | 62.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Double chance Nice or draw | 1.42 | 66.5% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Auxerre | 1.98 | 47.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nice | 1.77 | 52.8% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 73.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.6% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 29.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Auxerre over 1.5 team goals | 2.54 | 37.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Nice over 1.5 team goals | 2.29 | 41.0% | +4.1 pts |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Nice clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.01 · 0-1 8.27 · 1-0 8.86 · 1-2 9.11 · 0-0 9.49
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Auxerre | 2-1 | Nice |
| 23 Aug 25 | Nice | 3-1 | Auxerre |