Bolton 1–0 Cardiff
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Bolton to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 38% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Cardiff carried the greater threat — shots 7–17, 5–10 on target, 4–13 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- 6 B. Davies (D)
- 7 K. Dong (M)
- 8 J. Sheehan (M)
- 10 S. Dalby (F)
- 16 S. Iling-Junior (M)
- 18 E. Toal (D)
- 20 Ruben Rodrigues (M)
- 21 E. Erhahon (M)
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal (D)
- 25 M. Conway (D)
- 31 G. Bazunu (G)
Bench: J. Bonham, A. Famewo, A. Ito, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, R. Hardie, T. Gale, X. Simons, T. Bair
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
- 1 N. Trott (G)
- 3 J. Bagan (D)
- 4 G. Osho (D)
- 5 K. Bielik (D)
- 8 J. Moylan (M)
- 9 Y. Salech (F)
- 11 O. Tanner (M)
- 16 C. Willock (M)
- 18 A. Robertson (M)
- 27 J. Colwill (M)
- 38 P. Ng (D)
Bench: R. Kpakio, P. Moreno, C. Scanlon, R. Tankiewicz, D. Turnbull, M. Turner, H. Tyrer, Cian Ashford, C. Robinson
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 1.48 | 63.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 1.48 | 63.1% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bolton | 1.87 | 50.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cardiff | 1.87 | 50.0% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.3% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61.3% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 40.8% | +3.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 64.9% | +2.8 pts |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 1.95 | 48.1% | +1.5 pts |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.5% | +3.5 pts |
| Bolton clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -2.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.06 · 1-2 9.40 · 2-1 9.41 · 2-2 10.36 · 0-1 11.88
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).