Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.76–0.49.
The brain read
Borussia Dortmund created the better chances — the xG read 1.8–0.5 and the shot count agreed (14–10, 8–0 on target). Borussia Dortmund got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 5). Borussia Dortmund's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.8 xG, 8 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 3–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
- 1 G. Kobel (G)
- 3 W. Anton (D)
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 7 J. Bellingham (M)
- 9 S. Guirassy (F)
- 18 E. Nwaneri (M)
- 21 Fábio Silva (M)
- 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou (D)
- 24 D. Svensson (M)
- 25 J. Veerman (M)
- 26 J. Ryerson (M)
Bench: M. Albert, M. Beier, R. Bensebaïni, C. Chukwuemeka, A. Meyer, F. Nmecha, Kauã Prates, L. Reggiani, M. Sabitzer
SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
- 5 S. Castañeda (M)
- 15 N. Noll (G)
- 17 L. Curda (M)
- 18 M. Pieringer (F)
- 21 J. ter Horst (D)
- 22 M. Hansen (D)
- 23 R. Obermair (M)
- 25 T. Scheller (D)
- 28 L. Ulrich (M)
- 30 S. Marino (F)
- 40 G. Vidović (M)
Bench: S. Tigges, Jonah Benedict Sticker, M. Schubert, R. Philippe, C. Lippmann, F. Götze, O. Batista Meier, T. Baack, L. Đurić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 1.05 | 90.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw | 4.03 | 23.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.10 | 86.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Dortmund | 1.06 | 88.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Paderborn 07 | 8.22 | 11.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 86.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.89 | 50.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 54.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 1.22 | 76.6% | +0.6 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 team goals | 4.20 | 22.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | +1.9 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 15.00 | 6.4% | -1.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.84 · 3-0 8.39 · 2-1 9.03 · 3-1 9.56 · 1-0 10.37
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).