Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Borussia Dortmund carried the greater threat — shots 14–10, 8–0 on target, 10–5 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
- 1 G. Kobel (G)
- 3 W. Anton (D)
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 7 J. Bellingham (M)
- 9 S. Guirassy (F)
- 18 E. Nwaneri (M)
- 21 Fábio Silva (M)
- 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou (D)
- 24 D. Svensson (M)
- 25 J. Veerman (M)
- 26 J. Ryerson (M)
Bench: M. Albert, M. Beier, R. Bensebaïni, C. Chukwuemeka, A. Meyer, F. Nmecha, Kauã Prates, L. Reggiani, M. Sabitzer
SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
- 5 S. Castañeda (M)
- 15 N. Noll (G)
- 17 L. Curda (M)
- 18 M. Pieringer (F)
- 21 J. ter Horst (D)
- 22 M. Hansen (D)
- 23 R. Obermair (M)
- 25 T. Scheller (D)
- 28 L. Ulrich (M)
- 30 S. Marino (F)
- 40 G. Vidović (M)
Bench: S. Tigges, Jonah Benedict Sticker, M. Schubert, R. Philippe, C. Lippmann, F. Götze, O. Batista Meier, T. Baack, L. Đurić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 1.05 | 90.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw | 4.03 | 23.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.10 | 86.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Dortmund | 1.06 | 88.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Paderborn 07 | 8.22 | 11.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 86.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.89 | 50.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 54.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 1.22 | 76.6% | +0.6 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 team goals | 4.20 | 22.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | +1.9 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 15.00 | 6.4% | -1.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.84 · 3-0 8.39 · 2-1 9.03 · 3-1 9.56 · 1-0 10.37
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).