Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bournemouth to win (45%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bournemouth carried the greater threat — shots 20–8, 10–2 on target, 12–6 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bournemouth or draw | 1.43 | 65.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 1.55 | 60.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.4% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bournemouth | 1.77 | 52.8% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brentford | 1.98 | 47.2% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 79.8% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 59.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.46 | 38.3% | +1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.49 | 62.5% | +1.9 pts |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 team goals | 1.98 | 47.6% | +2.2 pts |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 2.13 | 44.1% | -0.0 pts |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Brentford clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.73 · 2-1 9.00 · 1-2 9.57 · 1-0 10.35 · 2-2 10.62
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar 26 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Brentford |
| 27 Dec 25 | Brentford | 4-1 | Bournemouth |