Cadiz 0–1 Las Palmas
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.49–2.87.
The brain read
Las Palmas created the better chances — the xG read 0.5–2.9 and the shot count agreed (7–20, 2–5 on target). Las Palmas got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 4). Las Palmas's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.9 xG despite 5 of 20 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Cadiz 4-2-3-1
- 4 Javi Castro (D)
- 5 M. Doué (M)
- 9 Álvaro García (F)
- 10 Javi Ontiveros (M)
- 13 Jokin Ezkieta (G)
- 14 B. Kovačević (D)
- 19 Urko Izeta (M)
- 20 Borja Vazquez (M)
- 22 Cristian Gutiérrez (D)
- 23 Damián Rodríguez (M)
- 27 J. Diaz Peregrina (D)
Bench: Sergio Arribas, Antonio Cordero, Manu Fernández, David Gil, V. Kopotun, Jandro Orellana, G. Petit, M. Rivera, Ibon Sánchez, E. Aghama, D. A. Zarate Hidalgo, Beñat de Jesús
Las Palmas 4-4-2
- 5 Enrique Clemente (D)
- 6 Iñaki González Zambrano (M)
- 10 Jesé (F)
- 11 T. Miyashiro (M)
- 12 E. Loiodice (M)
- 13 José Caro (G)
- 14 Manu Fuster (F)
- 15 Juan Herzog (D)
- 21 G. Bonfanti (D)
- 24 Iván Jaime (M)
- 25 Valentín Pezzolesi (D)
Bench: Rafa Cruz, Mateo Acimovic, I. Medina, Jorge Valverde Dios, Aidán Pieter Pérez Kraaijeveld, Sandro Ramírez, Jefté Betancor, Kirian Rodríguez, A. Rodriguez, Elías Romero, Rachid Saiah Bouchaiba, Adrián Suárez
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cadiz or draw | 1.40 | 67.0% | +1.5 pts |
| Double chance Las Palmas or draw | 1.51 | 61.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cadiz | 1.72 | 54.6% | +2.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Las Palmas | 2.06 | 45.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 47.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.47 | 26.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.74 | 53.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Cadiz over 1.5 team goals | 2.40 | 39.1% | +0.7 pts |
| Las Palmas over 1.5 team goals | 2.65 | 35.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Cadiz clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.74 · 1-0 7.39 · 0-1 8.10 · 2-1 8.77 · 0-0 9.24
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 26 | Cadiz | 1-2 | Las Palmas |
| 05 Oct 25 | Las Palmas | 1-0 | Cadiz |