Catanzaro 1–0 Carrarese
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Catanzaro carried the greater threat — shots 20–11, 2–1 on target, 9–5 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Catanzaro held 67% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
- 4 Matias Antonini (D)
- 9 P. Iemmello (M)
- 10 J. Petriccione (M)
- 20 S. Pafundi (M)
- 22 M. Pigliacelli (G)
- 24 M. Ruggero (D)
- 26 B. Verrengia (D)
- 30 G. Alesi (M)
- 31 E. Pecorino (F)
- 93 M. Dorval (M)
- 98 N. Mosti (M)
Bench: M. Imperiale, C. Marietta, A. Candela, R. Frosinini, S. Giovane, F. Cassa, F. Di Francesco, N. Koffi, N. Buso, F. Tchaouna, F. Reita, A. Garnica
Carrarese 3-5-2
- 1 S. Pizzignacco (G)
- 6 F. Oliana (D)
- 9 F. Abiuso (F)
- 11 M. Cissé (F)
- 13 F. Ruggeri (D)
- 17 L. Topalović (M)
- 18 Nicolás Schiavi (M)
- 28 J. Martini (M)
- 33 F. Reale (D)
- 73 J. Rouhi (M)
- 77 G. Parlanti (M)
Bench: T. Rubino, N. Bonfanti, M. Finotto, N. Cudrig, N. Belloni, T. Macchioni, Gonçalo Esteves, G. Garofani, M. Braunöder, Y. Khafi, G. Marconi, L. Romani
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Catanzaro or draw | 1.20 | 77.9% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance Carrarese or draw | 1.91 | 48.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Catanzaro | 1.33 | 70.1% | +2.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Carrarese | 3.11 | 29.9% | -2.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.2% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.05 | 30.7% | +1.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.74 | 53.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Catanzaro over 1.5 team goals | 1.85 | 50.6% | +2.9 pts |
| Carrarese over 1.5 team goals | 3.22 | 29.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Catanzaro clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +3.8 pts |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.32 · 1-0 6.98 · 2-1 7.84 · 2-0 8.88 · 0-0 9.78
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 26 | Carrarese | 3-3 | Catanzaro |
| 13 Sep 25 | Catanzaro | 1-1 | Carrarese |