Cesena 2–2 Cremonese
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Cremonese carried the greater threat — shots 8–19, 2–6 on target, 5–8 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Cesena 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Siano (G)
- 4 J. Gelli (D)
- 6 M. Ilić (D)
- 9 C. Shpendi (F)
- 10 R. Pagano (M)
- 14 X. Druiventak (M)
- 15 A. Ciofi (D)
- 18 M. Guidi (M)
- 24 M. Mangraviti (D)
- 25 D. Bisoli (M)
- 80 A. Fiori (M)
Bench: M. Francesconi, V. Magni, M. Natta, M. Piacentini, L. Schirone, E. Bohinen, L. D'Andrea, M. Dalla Vecchia, A. David, A. Debenedetti, N. Fontana, G. Frabotta
Cremonese 3-5-2
- 5 S. Luperto (D)
- 10 Adin Ličina (M)
- 14 T. Berti (F)
- 15 M. Bianchetti (D)
- 16 F. Gerli (M)
- 20 S. Pontisso (M)
- 21 Y. Rocchetti (M)
- 22 F. Agazzi (G)
- 27 J. Vandeputte (M)
- 38 A. Vogliacco (D)
- 90 F. Bonazzoli (F)
Bench: M. Festa, S. Elia, M. De Luca, M. Collocolo, F. Baschirotto, Riccardo Liberali, A. Lickūnas, Simone Lottici Tessadri, Fellipe Jack, M. Nasti, M. Thorsby, M. Đurić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cesena or draw | 1.58 | 59.5% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Cremonese or draw | 1.35 | 69.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cesena | 2.15 | 43.6% | +1.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cremonese | 1.66 | 56.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 74.4% | +3.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.89 | 50.1% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.12 | 30.0% | +3.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.1% | +3.7 pts |
| Cesena over 1.5 team goals | 2.63 | 35.7% | +3.3 pts |
| Cremonese over 1.5 team goals | 2.19 | 42.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Cesena clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Cremonese clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.90 · 0-1 7.97 · 1-2 8.65 · 0-0 9.51 · 1-0 9.56
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 17:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).