Charlton 0–0 Portsmouth
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Portsmouth to win (35%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 32% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Charlton carried the greater threat — shots 11–9, 3–3 on target, 6–3 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Charlton 4-2-3-1
- 5 L. Jones (D)
- 6 C. Coventry (M)
- 7 T. Campbell (M)
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant (M)
- 11 M. Leaburn (F)
- 13 A. Okonkwo (G)
- 18 I. Mesík (D)
- 19 M. Alli (M)
- 20 D. McNamara (D)
- 34 O. Skipp (M)
- 44 Tyler Bindon (D)
Bench: A. Bell, T. Brooks, S. Carey, C. Kelman, H. Knibbs, A. Mwamba, T. Ouma, J. Rankin-Costello, R. Nkeng
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
- 2 Benjamin Arthur (D)
- 6 C. Shaughnessy (D)
- 7 M. Pack (M)
- 9 C. Bishop (F)
- 10 A. Segecic (M)
- 11 A. Kamara (M)
- 16 J. Meghoma (D)
- 17 T. Shade (M)
- 19 R. Shein (M)
- 24 T. Devlin (D)
- 31 D. Bielica (G)
Bench: M. Dia, R. Kavuma McQueen, I. Mohamed, R. Poole, N. Schmid, Z. Swanson, J. Swift, O. Bailey, E. Adams
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 1.44 | 64.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.44 | 64.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 1.85 | 50.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 1.88 | 49.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 68.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 43.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.84 | 24.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 2.69 | 34.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.70 | 34.6% | +1.0 pts |
| Charlton clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +1.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.79 · 0-1 7.49 · 1-0 7.61 · 0-0 7.94 · 1-2 9.74
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb 26 | Charlton | 1-3 | Portsmouth |
| 29 Dec 25 | Portsmouth | 2-1 | Charlton |