Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.62–1.67.
The brain read
Ipswich created the better chances — the xG read 0.6–1.7 and the shot count agreed (11–12, 4–6 on target). Crystal Palace's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.6 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
- 3 T. Mitchell (M)
- 5 A. Disasi (D)
- 10 Yeremy Pino (M)
- 18 D. Kamada (M)
- 20 A. Wharton (M)
- 21 H. Ahanor (D)
- 22 J. Strand Larsen (F)
- 23 Q. Timber (M)
- 25 A. Khalaili (M)
- 26 C. Richards (D)
- 44 W. Benítez (G)
Bench: D. McNeil, W. Hughes, R. Matthews, T. Tomiyasu, B. Chilwell, Óscar Mingueza, C. Doucouré, J. Lerma, Z. Gozo
Ipswich 4-2-3-1
- 3 L. Davis (D)
- 6 I. Diop (D)
- 7 A. Fatawu (M)
- 10 J. Enciso (M)
- 19 Emersonn (F)
- 23 S. Lukić (M)
- 24 J. Greaves (D)
- 25 E. Palacios (M)
- 26 D. O'Shea (D)
- 37 K. Scherpen (G)
- 47 J. Clarke (M)
Bench: J. Philogene, C. Walton, C. Kipré, A. Ouattara, Florentino, M. Núñez, D. Maeda, Z. Flemming, C. Akpom
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Crystal Palace or draw | 1.25 | 75.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Ipswich or draw | 1.91 | 49.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 75.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Crystal Palace | 1.40 | 66.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ipswich | 2.79 | 33.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.8% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55.1% | +4.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.72 | 34.5% | +4.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.6% | +3.2 pts |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 team goals | 1.80 | 52.2% | +3.1 pts |
| Ipswich over 1.5 team goals | 2.88 | 32.7% | +3.3 pts |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Ipswich clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.89 · 2-1 8.01 · 1-0 8.08 · 2-0 9.60 · 0-1 12.03
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).