Derby 1–2 Birmingham
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Birmingham to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Birmingham carried the greater threat — shots 18–18, 4–9 on target, 10–13 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Derby 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström (G)
- 4 D. Ozoh (M)
- 6 S. Langås (D)
- 8 B. Clark (M)
- 9 C. Morris (F)
- 11 S. Szmodics (M)
- 16 M. Fuseini (M)
- 18 C. Taylor (D)
- 19 H. Meister (M)
- 23 J. Ward (D)
- 44 E. Cashin (D)
Bench: J. Vickers, C. Blackett-Taylor, O. Fraulo, R. Hedges, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt, R. Nyambe, L. Salvesen, D. Sanderson
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Beadle (G)
- 4 C. Klarer (D)
- 5 P. Neumann (D)
- 7 Carlos Vicente (M)
- 9 A. Priske (F)
- 14 J. Solis (M)
- 17 L. Millar (M)
- 20 A. Cochrane (D)
- 24 T. Iwata (M)
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel (D)
- 28 J. Stansfield (M)
Bench: Paik Seung-Ho, L. Vázquez, K. Lund, E. Laird, K. Fujimoto, M. Ducksch, L. Buchanan, R. Allsop, D. Fry
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.69 | 55.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.28 | 72.9% | +3.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 2.46 | 37.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 1.50 | 62.1% | +4.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 70.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 46.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.48 | 26.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.77 | 52.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 3.05 | 30.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 2.19 | 42.9% | +1.1 pts |
| Derby clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.95 · 0-1 7.00 · 1-2 8.39 · 0-0 8.70 · 1-0 9.34
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Derby | 1-0 | Birmingham |
| 26 Dec 25 | Birmingham | 1-1 | Derby |