FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bayer Leverkusen to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 24% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bayer Leverkusen carried the greater threat — shots 8–30, 5–5 on target, 5–21 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Bayer Leverkusen held 63% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
- 1 F. Dahmen (G)
- 2 C. Brackelmann (D)
- 4 H. Massengo (M)
- 5 C. Matsima (D)
- 11 M. Gregoritsch (F)
- 16 Hennes Behrens (M)
- 19 R. Fellhauer (M)
- 21 A. Ibrahimović (F)
- 27 M. Wolf (D)
- 32 F. Rieder (F)
- 40 Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks (D)
Bench: M. Kömür, N. Labrović, U. Ogundu, Seol Young-Woo, Abdulay Bah, A. Claude-Maurice, Rodrigo Ribeiro, J. Gouweleeuw, Y. Keitel
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Flekken (G)
- 2 F. Medina (D)
- 3 Miguel Gutiérrez (D)
- 4 J. Quansah (D)
- 6 E. Fernández (M)
- 9 Afonso Moreira (F)
- 12 E. Tapsoba (D)
- 19 M. Diaby (F)
- 24 Aleix García (M)
- 30 I. Maza (M)
- 35 Christian Kofane (F)
Bench: L. Badé, J. Blaswich, G. Doué, J. Hofmann, Lucas Vázquez, P. Schick, M. Terrier, M. Tillman, R. Andrich
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance FC Augsburg or draw | 1.94 | 48.5% | +3.6 pts |
| Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 1.26 | 74.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 77.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — FC Augsburg | 2.74 | 34.0% | +4.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bayer Leverkusen | 1.41 | 66.0% | -4.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 85.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.03 | 47.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.39 | 66.8% | +1.5 pts |
| FC Augsburg over 1.5 team goals | 2.22 | 42.4% | +3.2 pts |
| Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 61.3% | -1.9 pts |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.22 · 1-2 8.38 · 2-2 10.68 · 1-3 11.59 · 0-2 12.11
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 26 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-2 | FC Augsburg |
| 06 Dec 25 | FC Augsburg | 2-0 | Bayer Leverkusen |