FC St. Pauli 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg
What the chances were worth
The brain read
FC St. Pauli carried the greater threat — shots 18–10, 4–2 on target, 9–7 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
- 1 B. Voll (G)
- 4 D. Nemeth (D)
- 7 Y. Niang (M)
- 8 E. Smith (D)
- 9 Abdoulie Ceesay (F)
- 11 A. Pyrka (M)
- 16 J. Fujita (M)
- 20 M. Rasmussen (M)
- 21 L. Ritzka (D)
- 23 L. Oppie (M)
- 24 C. Metcalfe (M)
Bench: Samuel Klein, M. Kaars, R. Jones, T. Hara, A. Dźwigała, S. Banks, E. Ahlstrand, D. Mitov, J. Westphal
VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3
- 2 K. Fischer (D)
- 5 Vinicius Souza (M)
- 6 H. Wahl (D)
- 7 K. Shiogai (F)
- 11 F. Reese (F)
- 17 A. Bernhardsson (F)
- 20 M. Damar (M)
- 21 J. Mæhle (D)
- 30 J. Zieliński (G)
- 32 M. Svanberg (M)
- 33 Cleiton (D)
Bench: A. Zehnter, J. Adjetey, M. Arnold, A. Besio, Bence Dárdai, Y. Gerhardt, P. Hensel, B. Katz, P. Pervan
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw | 1.45 | 64.6% | +3.5 pts |
| Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw | 1.53 | 61.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — FC St. Pauli | 1.79 | 52.3% | +4.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Wolfsburg | 1.96 | 47.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.3% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61.1% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 40.6% | +4.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 64.2% | +2.5 pts |
| FC St. Pauli over 1.5 team goals | 1.89 | 49.5% | +5.2 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg over 1.5 team goals | 2.00 | 46.9% | +2.6 pts |
| FC St. Pauli clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.9 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.37 · 2-1 9.21 · 1-2 9.72 · 2-2 10.54 · 1-0 11.82
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 26 | FC St. Pauli | 1-3 | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 14 Jan 26 | VfL Wolfsburg | 2-1 | FC St. Pauli |