FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured FSV Mainz 05 to win (47%); it finished with Eintracht Frankfurt to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
FSV Mainz 05 carried the greater threat — shots 18–11, 5–5 on target, 11–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
- 2 P. Mwene (M)
- 3 F. Gruber (D)
- 4 S. Posch (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (M)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 27 R. Zentner (G)
- 48 K. Potulski (D)
Bench: D. da Costa, B. Hollerbach, S. Bell, S. Kawasaki, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, R. Nakuzola, O. Ruoppi, A. Schwolow
Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4-2-1
- 1 N. Atubolu (G)
- 2 Elias Baum (M)
- 3 L. Brassier (D)
- 4 R. Koch (D)
- 9 J. Burkardt (F)
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili (M)
- 20 R. Dōan (M)
- 25 R. Onyedika (M)
- 26 K. Kosugi (M)
- 37 J. Maluze (D)
- 42 C. Uzun (M)
Bench: M. Pimpong, Otávio, Kauã Santos, M. Götze, Y. Ebnoutalib, N. Collins, T. Chandler, L. Arrhov, A. Amaimouni
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.24 | 76.1% | +5.8 pts |
| Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw | 2.02 | 46.7% | -8.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 77.2% | +2.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.38 | 67.7% | +7.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.90 | 32.3% | -7.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 84.1% | +3.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 65.9% | +5.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.10 | 45.6% | +5.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.42 | 65.4% | +2.8 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 61.3% | +8.4 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 40.1% | -1.1 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -4.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.18 · 2-1 8.31 · 1-0 10.95 · 2-2 11.03 · 2-0 11.15
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 26 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 09 Nov 25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 | FSV Mainz 05 |