FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.12–2.04.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured FSV Mainz 05 to win (47%); it finished with Eintracht Frankfurt to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.1–2, shots 18–11 with 5–5 on target. FSV Mainz 05's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.1 xG despite 5 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
- 2 P. Mwene (M)
- 3 F. Gruber (D)
- 4 S. Posch (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (M)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 27 R. Zentner (G)
- 48 K. Potulski (D)
Bench: D. da Costa, B. Hollerbach, S. Bell, S. Kawasaki, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, R. Nakuzola, O. Ruoppi, A. Schwolow
Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4-2-1
- 1 N. Atubolu (G)
- 2 Elias Baum (M)
- 3 L. Brassier (D)
- 4 R. Koch (D)
- 9 J. Burkardt (F)
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili (M)
- 20 R. Dōan (M)
- 25 R. Onyedika (M)
- 26 K. Kosugi (M)
- 37 J. Maluze (D)
- 42 C. Uzun (M)
Bench: M. Pimpong, Otávio, Kauã Santos, M. Götze, Y. Ebnoutalib, N. Collins, T. Chandler, L. Arrhov, A. Amaimouni
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.24 | 76.1% | +5.8 pts |
| Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw | 2.02 | 46.7% | -8.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 77.2% | +2.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.38 | 67.7% | +7.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.90 | 32.3% | -7.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 84.1% | +3.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 65.9% | +5.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.10 | 45.6% | +5.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.42 | 65.4% | +2.8 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 61.3% | +8.4 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 40.1% | -1.1 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -4.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.18 · 2-1 8.31 · 1-0 10.95 · 2-2 11.03 · 2-0 11.15
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 26 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 09 Nov 25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 | FSV Mainz 05 |