FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie A · Sat 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC

Genoa 11 Frosinone

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What the chances were worth

Genoa
1.86
expected goals (xG)
Frosinone
1.85
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.86–1.85.

The brain read

Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.9–1.9, shots 17–26 with 5–5 on target. Frosinone got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 12). Genoa's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Genoa
Frosinone
45%
Ball Possession
55%
17
Total Shots
26
5
Shots on Goal
5
6
Shots off Goal
8
6
Blocked Shots
13
12
Shots inside box
15
5
Shots outside box
11
1.86
Expected goals (xG)
1.85
8
Corner Kicks
9
2
Offsides
3
274
Total passes
346
175
Passes accurate
268
64%
Passes %
77%
12
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
-0.12
Goals prevented
-0.12

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Genoa
42%
market implied · price 2.26 · opened 46%
Draw
29%
market implied · price 3.32 · opened 28%
Frosinone
29%
market implied · price 3.25 · opened 26%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Genoa or draw1.3470.6%-3.9 pts
Double chance Frosinone or draw1.6457.5%+4.5 pts
Double chance either team1.3171.9%-0.6 pts
Draw no bet — Genoa1.6058.6%-6.0 pts
Draw no bet — Frosinone2.2641.4%+6.0 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.2575.1%+4.0 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.8252.6%+5.3 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.9531.9%+4.9 pts
Both teams to score1.6257.6%+5.9 pts
Genoa over 1.5 team goals2.0545.9%+1.2 pts
Frosinone over 1.5 team goals2.5836.4%+7.4 pts
Genoa clean sheet3.2529.0%-8.7 pts
Frosinone clean sheet4.0023.4%-0.2 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.13 · 1-0 8.30 · 2-1 8.43 · 0-1 10.21 · 0-0 10.25

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 12:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.