Genoa 1–1 Frosinone
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.86–1.85.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.9–1.9, shots 17–26 with 5–5 on target. Frosinone got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 12). Genoa's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Genoa or draw | 1.34 | 70.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Double chance Frosinone or draw | 1.64 | 57.5% | +4.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Genoa | 1.60 | 58.6% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Frosinone | 2.26 | 41.4% | +6.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 75.1% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 52.6% | +5.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.95 | 31.9% | +4.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 57.6% | +5.9 pts |
| Genoa over 1.5 team goals | 2.05 | 45.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Frosinone over 1.5 team goals | 2.58 | 36.4% | +7.4 pts |
| Genoa clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -8.7 pts |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -0.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.13 · 1-0 8.30 · 2-1 8.43 · 0-1 10.21 · 0-0 10.25
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 12:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).