Liverpool 0–0 Fulham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.28–0.70.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Liverpool to win (48%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Liverpool created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–0.7 and the shot count agreed (14–10, 3–4 on target). Liverpool's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 3 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Liverpool shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 1.14 | 82.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance Fulham or draw | 2.51 | 37.6% | +2.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.18 | 79.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Liverpool | 1.19 | 78.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Fulham | 4.29 | 21.8% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.13 | 44.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.54 | 60.6% | +1.5 pts |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 1.41 | 66.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Fulham over 1.5 team goals | 2.93 | 31.9% | +2.8 pts |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Fulham clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.6% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.94 · 1-1 9.00 · 2-0 9.20 · 1-0 10.02 · 3-1 10.43
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Fulham |
| 04 Jan 26 | Fulham | 2-2 | Liverpool |