FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Premier League · Sat 12 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC

Liverpool 00 Fulham

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What the chances were worth

No expected-goals numbers captured for this match.

What the model expected

Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.

Liverpool
48%
Draw
26%
Fulham
26%

Before kick-off the model favoured Liverpool to win (48%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.

One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.

The brain read

Liverpool carried the greater threat — shots 14–10, 3–4 on target, 9–8 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Liverpool
Fulham
56%
Ball Possession
44%
14
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
4
6
Shots off Goal
3
5
Blocked Shots
3
9
Shots inside box
8
5
Shots outside box
2
5
Corner Kicks
8
1
Offsides
1
495
Total passes
394
413
Passes accurate
303
11
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
8
Free Kicks
10

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Liverpool
62%
market implied · price 1.53 · opened 66%
Draw
21%
market implied · price 4.62 · opened 19%
Fulham
17%
market implied · price 5.63 · opened 15%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Liverpool or draw1.1482.5%-1.7 pts
Double chance Fulham or draw2.5137.6%+2.8 pts
Double chance either team1.1879.9%-1.2 pts
Draw no bet — Liverpool1.1978.2%-1.6 pts
Draw no bet — Fulham4.2921.8%+1.6 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.1183.8%+0.1 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.4465.4%-0.3 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.1344.9%-0.6 pts
Both teams to score1.5460.6%+1.5 pts
Liverpool over 1.5 team goals1.4166.2%-1.9 pts
Fulham over 1.5 team goals2.9331.9%+2.8 pts
Liverpool clean sheet2.7533.7%-1.7 pts
Fulham clean sheet9.0010.6%+0.0 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.94 · 1-1 9.00 · 2-0 9.20 · 1-0 10.02 · 3-1 10.43

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
11 Apr 26Liverpool2-0Fulham
04 Jan 26Fulham2-2Liverpool