Lorient 2–2 Toulouse
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Lorient to win (38%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Toulouse carried the greater threat — shots 10–13, 3–4 on target, 6–13 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lorient 3-4-2-1
- 3 M. Talbi (D)
- 8 N. Cadiou (M)
- 17 J. Makengo (M)
- 18 I. Baldé (F)
- 20 D. Sylla (D)
- 32 N. Adjei (D)
- 33 G. Bernardeau (M)
- 38 Y. Mvogo (G)
- 43 K. Kouassi (M)
- 72 N. Mbamba (M)
- 77 P. Katseris (M)
Bench: S. Faye, A. Georgen, B. Kamara, M. Kone, N. Obaretin, I. Jensen, T. Le Bris, A. Avom, A. Tosin
Toulouse 4-2-3-1
- 3 M. McKenzie (D)
- 5 S. Koumbassa (D)
- 8 T. Jørgensen (M)
- 9 S. Hidalgo (M)
- 12 C. Tapé (D)
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe (F)
- 22 R. Messali (D)
- 23 C. Cásseres (M)
- 31 N. Schmidt (M)
- 37 Y. Azizi (M)
- 60 M. Niflore (G)
Bench: M. Amougou, T. Collin, I. Diallo, A. Vossah, D. Odogu, S. Oppong, N. Sigur, C. Tengstedt, Julián Vignolo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lorient or draw | 1.38 | 68.3% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 1.56 | 60.3% | -3.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lorient | 1.67 | 56.0% | +4.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Toulouse | 2.13 | 44.0% | -4.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 74.2% | +2.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.9% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.07 | 30.6% | +2.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.6% | +2.8 pts |
| Lorient over 1.5 team goals | 2.19 | 42.9% | +4.7 pts |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 2.53 | 37.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Lorient clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +1.4 pts |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -4.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.07 · 1-0 8.24 · 2-1 8.76 · 0-1 9.68 · 0-0 9.81
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Toulouse | 1-0 | Lorient |
| 09 Nov 25 | Lorient | 1-1 | Toulouse |