Middlesbrough 4–3 Norwich
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Middlesbrough to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 48% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Middlesbrough carried the greater threat — shots 17–13, 6–5 on target, 12–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
- 1 R. Vítek (G)
- 2 C. Brittain (M)
- 5 A. Jones (D)
- 6 S. Berhalter (M)
- 7 W. Lankshear (F)
- 8 R. McGree (M)
- 9 T. Conway (M)
- 10 A. Morris (M)
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry (M)
- 29 A. Malanda (D)
- 30 Neto Borges (D)
Bench: L. Ayling, S. Brynn, K. Joseph, M. Peart-Harris, M. Arfsten, A. Phillips, R. Pukštas, J. Sarmiento, D. Strelec
Norwich 4-2-3-1
- 1 V. Kovačević (G)
- 7 P. Mattsson (M)
- 11 A. Brooks (M)
- 14 B. Chrisene (D)
- 15 Ruairi McConville (D)
- 20 A. Ben Slimane (M)
- 21 M. Touré (F)
- 23 K. McLean (M)
- 33 J. Córdoba (D)
- 35 K. Fisher (D)
- 49 A. Musaba (M)
Bench: A. Crnac, H. Darling, S. Field, D. Grimshaw, P. Maghoma, J. Makama, O. Schwartau, J. Stacey, Jacob Wright
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.24 | 75.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.91 | 49.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 75.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.40 | 66.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 2.79 | 33.3% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 80.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 59.8% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 39.1% | +1.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.51 | 61.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 1.67 | 56.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 2.57 | 36.6% | +2.5 pts |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Norwich clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.41 · 2-1 7.97 · 1-0 9.41 · 2-0 10.48 · 2-2 11.75
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Middlesbrough | 1-0 | Norwich |
| 23 Aug 25 | Norwich | 1-2 | Middlesbrough |