Osasuna 0–2 Espanyol
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.05–1.43.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Osasuna to win (53%); it finished with Espanyol to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 20% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 1.1–1.4 in Espanyol's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 11–6 overall and 4–3 on target went Osasuna's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Osasuna's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.1 xG despite 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Osasuna 4-2-3-1
- 1 Sergio Herrera (G)
- 7 Moncayola (M)
- 8 Iker Muñoz (M)
- 9 Raúl García (M)
- 11 Kike Barja (M)
- 14 Rubén García (M)
- 15 Diego Rico (D)
- 17 A. Budimir (F)
- 24 Catena (D)
- 27 Íñigo Arguibide (D)
- 48 R. Yeboah (D)
Bench: Aitor Fernández, Rafa Fernández, Lucas Torró, U. Santos, Raul Moro, Asier Osambela, Asier Bonel, F. Boyomo, Abel Bretones, R. Del Castillo, Jonathan Dubasin, Mauro Echegoyen
Espanyol 4-2-3-1
- 4 Urko González (M)
- 5 C. Riedel (D)
- 6 L. Cabrera (D)
- 8 Edu Expósito (M)
- 9 Roberto Fernández (F)
- 13 M. Dmitrović (G)
- 18 Marcos Fernández (M)
- 21 Roger Hinojo (D)
- 23 O. El Hilali (D)
- 24 T. Dolan (M)
- 28 Javier Hernandez (M)
Bench: Álex Calatrava, Rafel Bauzà, V. Drkušić, Ángel Fortuño, Gabriel Moscardo, Q. Hartman, Jofre Carreras, J. A. Lopez, Pol Lozano, Pere Milla, Unai Núñez, Bryan Zaragoza
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Osasuna or draw | 1.31 | 71.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 1.63 | 58.0% | +5.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Osasuna | 1.58 | 59.1% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 2.29 | 40.9% | +6.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 67.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.23 | 42.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.98 | 23.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.90 | 49.1% | -0.0 pts |
| Osasuna over 1.5 team goals | 2.42 | 38.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 3.23 | 29.1% | +2.4 pts |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +2.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.77 · 1-0 6.58 · 0-0 7.96 · 0-1 8.47 · 2-1 8.76
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Osasuna | 1-2 | Espanyol |
| 31 Aug 25 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Osasuna |