Padova 1–0 Ascoli
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Ascoli carried the greater threat — shots 11–20, 4–5 on target, 5–13 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Ascoli held 65% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Padova 3-5-2
- 5 M. Lovato (D)
- 7 K. Varas (M)
- 9 L. Moro (F)
- 14 M. Pompetti (M)
- 15 K. Lasagna (F)
- 21 E. Zuelli (M)
- 22 A. Sorrentino (G)
- 23 F. Di Mariano (M)
- 24 L. Carissoni (M)
- 27 Alessandro Dellavalle (D)
- 58 C. Pastina (D)
Bench: N. Galazzi, P. Fusi, G. Giunti, L. Mouquet, A. Seghetti, F. Sgarbi, E. Silletti, M. Bortolussi, A. Capelli, G. Caprari, M. Cocchi, C. Faedo
Ascoli 3-5-2
- 1 S. Vitale (G)
- 4 S. Damiani (M)
- 8 G. Corradini (M)
- 9 A. Chakir (F)
- 15 S. D'Uffizi (F)
- 19 A. Guiébré (M)
- 21 G. De Pieri (M)
- 30 M. Curado (D)
- 33 N. Rizzo (D)
- 62 T. Milanese (D)
- 77 D. Bolsius (M)
Bench: Matteo Brunori, G. Crespi, F. Diamanti, F. Gattoni, G. Gori, L. Lo Scalzo, M. Nicoletti, A. Oliveri, S. Perciun, M. Ricci, A. Silipo, G. Acampora
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Padova or draw | 1.31 | 71.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance Ascoli or draw | 1.66 | 56.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Padova | 1.55 | 59.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ascoli | 2.31 | 40.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.6% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 47.0% | +2.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.52 | 26.5% | +2.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 52.9% | +3.0 pts |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 2.21 | 42.3% | +2.9 pts |
| Ascoli over 1.5 team goals | 2.94 | 31.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Padova clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.93 · 1-0 7.13 · 2-1 8.53 · 0-0 9.03 · 0-1 9.22
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 12:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).