Paris FC 0–0 Lyon
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Paris FC to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Paris FC carried the greater threat — shots 6–5, 4–0 on target, 3–3 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Paris FC 3-4-2-1
- 1 K. Trapp (G)
- 7 P. Pagis (M)
- 9 L. Sinayoko (F)
- 10 I. Kebbal (M)
- 14 H. Traoré (D)
- 15 L. Koleosho (M)
- 17 A. Camara (M)
- 20 M. Lopez (M)
- 31 S. Chergui (D)
- 33 P. Lees-Melou (M)
- 42 D. Coppola (D)
Bench: J. Ikoné, Y. Koré, V. Marchetti, R. Matondo, M. Mbow, O. Nkambadio, M. Simon, O. Sissoko, E. Zabi
Lyon 4-3-2-1
- 1 D. Greif (G)
- 2 M. Bidstrup (M)
- 7 E. Nuamah (M)
- 8 C. Tolisso (M)
- 10 P. Šulc (M)
- 13 Z. Athekame (D)
- 16 Abner (D)
- 17 L. Openda (F)
- 19 M. Niakhaté (D)
- 20 F. Bacher (D)
- 23 T. Morton (M)
Bench: N. Nartey, Keito Nakamura, N. Tagliafico, T. Tessmann, R. Descamps, R. Kluivert, K. Boudache, Clinton Mata, K. Merah
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 1.49 | 63.4% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 1.50 | 62.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris FC | 1.84 | 50.7% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lyon | 1.90 | 49.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 80.6% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 60.0% | +3.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.38 | 39.5% | +4.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 | 62.9% | +3.2 pts |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 1.99 | 47.4% | +4.4 pts |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 2.01 | 46.8% | +2.3 pts |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Lyon clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.08 · 2-1 9.35 · 1-2 9.45 · 2-2 10.54 · 1-0 11.42
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | Lyon | 1-1 | Paris FC |
| 29 Oct 25 | Paris FC | 3-3 | Lyon |