Racing Santander 2–1 Alaves
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.01–1.98.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2–2, shots 11–16 with 4–8 on target. Alaves's finishing let them down — 1 from 2 xG despite 8 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Racing Santander or draw | 1.44 | 65.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 1.52 | 61.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Racing Santander | 1.80 | 52.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Alaves | 1.96 | 47.9% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 77.2% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 55.8% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.68 | 34.9% | +2.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 | 59.9% | +1.5 pts |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 team goals | 2.14 | 44.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 2.22 | 42.2% | +2.4 pts |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Alaves clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -0.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.49 · 2-1 9.03 · 1-2 9.54 · 1-0 9.82 · 0-1 10.14
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 11:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).