SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made SC Freiburg to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 47% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
SC Freiburg carried the greater threat — shots 19–5, 9–0 on target, 12–4 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Backhaus (G)
- 3 P. Lienhart (D)
- 7 D. Scherhant (M)
- 8 M. Eggestein (M)
- 14 Y. Suzuki (M)
- 16 Y. Engelhardt (M)
- 19 J. Beste (M)
- 28 M. Ginter (D)
- 29 P. Treu (D)
- 31 I. Matanović (F)
- 33 J. Makengo (D)
Bench: K. Goto, V. Grifo, C. Günter, L. Höler, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, L. Kübler, F. Müller, M. Rosenfelder, Berkay Yilmaz
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-4-2
- 1 M. Nicolas (G)
- 4 K. Diks (D)
- 6 K. Itakura (D)
- 7 K. Stöger (M)
- 9 F. Honorat (M)
- 11 T. Kleindienst (F)
- 16 P. Sander (M)
- 20 D. Herold (D)
- 25 R. Hack (M)
- 29 J. Scally (D)
- 38 H. Bolin (F)
Bench: S. Machino, W. Mohya, F. Neuhaus, M. Nguefack, L. Ullrich, I. Lidberg, J. Leszczyński, F. Chiarodia, D. Batz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SC Freiburg or draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw | 2.17 | 43.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 77.4% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Freiburg | 1.29 | 72.2% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3.35 | 27.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 40.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.54 | 60.3% | +0.9 pts |
| SC Freiburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.56 | 60.1% | +2.7 pts |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.5 team goals | 2.81 | 33.4% | +0.2 pts |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | -2.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.68 · 2-1 7.77 · 1-0 9.17 · 2-0 9.39 · 3-1 11.59
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 26 | SC Freiburg | 2-1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 05 Oct 25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0-0 | SC Freiburg |