Southampton 4–1 Bristol City
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Southampton to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 52% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bristol City carried the greater threat — shots 10–21, 5–6 on target, 8–18 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- 1 Daniel Peretz (G)
- 3 R. Manning (D)
- 4 F. Downes (M)
- 7 Léo Scienza (M)
- 9 C. Larin (F)
- 10 F. Azaz (M)
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 14 J. Bree (D)
- 15 N. Wood-Gordon (D)
- 27 K. Matsuki (M)
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse (M)
Bench: Cameron Bragg, L. Dobbin, S. Edozie, T. Fellows, Z. Abbott, G. Long, D. Mubama, J. Stephens, Welington
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
- 1 S. Tickle (G)
- 2 L. Eissat (D)
- 7 Y. Hirakawa (M)
- 8 J. Williams (M)
- 9 L. Tolaj (F)
- 10 S. Twine (M)
- 12 J. Knight (M)
- 16 R. Dickie (D)
- 19 G. Tanner (D)
- 21 Rio Cardines (D)
- 23 D. Ballard (M)
Bench: E. Adebayo, B. Collins, N. Eile, S. Greenwood, T. Horvat, C. Pring, A. Randell, J. Wallace, G. Yah
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 1.18 | 79.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 2.17 | 43.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.21 | 77.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 1.28 | 72.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bristol City | 3.44 | 27.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 80.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 59.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.41 | 38.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.59 | 58.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 1.57 | 59.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 2.92 | 32.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Southampton clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -0.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.70 · 2-1 7.73 · 1-0 8.72 · 2-0 9.07 · 3-1 11.57
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 26 | Southampton | 2-2 | Bristol City |
| 21 Oct 25 | Bristol City | 3-1 | Southampton |