Strasbourg 1–1 Monaco
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.02–1.05.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Strasbourg to win (44%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–1.1, shots 13–12 with 2–3 on target. A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Jörgensen (G)
- 4 J. Mitchell (D)
- 6 I. Doukouré (D)
- 10 G. Reyna (M)
- 11 S. Nanasi (M)
- 16 G. Antwi (D)
- 21 P. Diop (M)
- 23 Diogo Sousa (M)
- 30 J. Ortega (F)
- 36 Oso (D)
- 80 Gessime Yassine (M)
Bench: M. Piekutowski, L. Høgsberg, Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, Tyrese Noubissie, Dário Essugo, S. El Mourabet, B. Brantlind, S. Amo-Ameyaw, C. Harder
Monaco 4-2-3-1
- 1 L. Hrádecký (G)
- 2 Vanderson (D)
- 6 D. Zakaria (M)
- 8 L. Camara (M)
- 10 A. Golovin (M)
- 15 E. Dier (D)
- 17 S. Idumbo-Muzambo (M)
- 20 Flávio Nazinho (D)
- 29 Paris Josua Brunner (F)
- 46 A. Soubeir (M)
- 72 Sadibou Sané (D)
Bench: M. Biereth, S. Benzahra, M. Abline, Pape Cabral, M. Detourbet, P. Köhn, C. Mawissa Elebi, M. Salisu, I. Touré
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance Monaco or draw | 1.34 | 70.7% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.3% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Strasbourg | 2.40 | 38.9% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monaco | 1.53 | 61.1% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61.5% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.34 | 40.8% | +2.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.47 | 63.3% | +2.1 pts |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 2.26 | 41.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Monaco over 1.5 team goals | 1.76 | 53.5% | +3.7 pts |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
| Monaco clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.41 · 1-2 8.39 · 0-1 10.51 · 2-2 10.76 · 2-1 10.76
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Strasbourg | 5-4 | Monaco |
| 31 Aug 25 | Monaco | 3-2 | Strasbourg |