Sudtirol 1–1 Modena
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Modena carried the greater threat — shots 11–18, 3–8 on target, 7–10 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Modena held 68% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sudtirol 3-4-2-1
- 4 R. Stivanello (D)
- 5 S. Tronchin (M)
- 10 Fabio Rispoli (M)
- 11 Vasco Lopes (M)
- 18 Kevin Zeroli (M)
- 20 B. Bjarkason (M)
- 22 A. Plizzari (G)
- 27 G. Stabile (D)
- 55 A. Giorgini (D)
- 79 S. Molina (M)
- 90 A. Okoro (F)
Bench: R. Burnete, D. Brik, F. Davi, S. Davì, K. Mixtur, M. Pellini, Elias Schroot, F. Tait, Rok Vadjunec, A. Vasic, D. Veroli, L. Anghelè
Modena 3-5-2
- 1 L. Chichizola (G)
- 6 S. Nador (D)
- 7 F. Zampano (M)
- 8 S. Santoro (M)
- 10 G. Caso (M)
- 16 G. Brugman (M)
- 20 B. Nieling (D)
- 42 A. Bianco (M)
- 70 G. Ambrosino (F)
- 72 G. Olzer (F)
- 77 D. Tonoli (D)
Bench: L. Bacchin, A. Belotti, K. Bozhanaj, L. Consiglio, Paulo Azzi, F. Folino, A. Imputato, D. Montevago, Martino Odero, Diego Ronco, W. Acquah, D. Adorni
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sudtirol or draw | 1.50 | 62.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Double chance Modena or draw | 1.35 | 69.0% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.36 | 68.9% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sudtirol | 2.12 | 44.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Modena | 1.67 | 55.9% | +3.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 69.1% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44.1% | +2.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.79 | 24.6% | +1.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.81 | 51.4% | +1.9 pts |
| Sudtirol over 1.5 team goals | 2.91 | 32.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 2.49 | 37.6% | +2.1 pts |
| Sudtirol clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Modena clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.55 · 0-1 7.08 · 0-0 7.68 · 1-0 8.24 · 1-2 9.31
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 12:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Sudtirol | 1-1 | Modena |
| 23 Nov 25 | Modena | 0-0 | Sudtirol |