Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Arsenal to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Arsenal carried the greater threat — shots 12–11, 3–5 on target, 7–8 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 2.36 | 40.0% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 1.12 | 84.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sunderland | 4.43 | 21.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arsenal | 1.18 | 78.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 70.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.09 | 45.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.63 | 25.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.07 | 45.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 4.83 | 19.4% | +1.5 pts |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 1.80 | 52.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | -2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 5.58 · 0-2 6.79 · 1-1 7.06 · 1-2 8.17 · 0-0 9.16
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb 26 | Arsenal | 3-0 | Sunderland |
| 08 Nov 25 | Sunderland | 2-2 | Arsenal |