Swansea 3–1 Burnley
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Swansea to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 50% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Burnley carried the greater threat — shots 14–18, 7–6 on target, 10–11 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Swansea 4-2-3-1
- 2 J. Key (D)
- 5 B. Cabango (D)
- 6 M. Stamenić (M)
- 7 M. Widell (M)
- 8 E. Just (M)
- 14 J. Tymon (D)
- 22 L. Vigouroux (G)
- 23 S. Welsh (D)
- 33 A. Idah (F)
- 46 S. Eustáquio (M)
- 49 M. Yeo (M)
Bench: A. Fisher, Gonçalo Franco, J. Fulton, F. Lissah, Joseph Okopu, Tiago Parente, Ronald, J. Seelt, Z. Vipotnik
Burnley 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Weiß (G)
- 2 K. Walker (D)
- 3 Max Alleyne (M)
- 8 U. Raghouber (M)
- 11 Z. Amdouni (F)
- 14 C. Roberts (D)
- 19 L. Ramazani (M)
- 21 A. Ramsey (M)
- 22 O. Sonne (D)
- 29 J. Laurent (M)
- 44 Igor (D)
Bench: J. Vardy, Lucas Pires, A. Hountondji, R. Hatate, H. Ekdal, G. Coudert, L. Castell, A. Broja, A. Ahmedhodžić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.28 | 73.1% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 1.74 | 53.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 1.50 | 62.6% | +3.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Burnley | 2.50 | 37.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.09 | 30.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.69 | 55.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 2.00 | 46.9% | +1.3 pts |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 2.87 | 32.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Swansea clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +3.9 pts |
| Burnley clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.35 · 1-0 7.67 · 2-1 8.26 · 2-0 10.13 · 0-1 10.48
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).