FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Premier League · Sat 12 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC

Tottenham 00 Everton

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What the chances were worth

No expected-goals numbers captured for this match.

What the model expected

Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.

Tottenham
40%
Draw
29%
Everton
31%

Before kick-off the model favoured Tottenham to win (40%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.

One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.

The brain read

An even contest on the shot picture — shots 14–12, 2–3 on target, 8–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Tottenham held 62% of the ball.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Tottenham
Everton
62%
Ball Possession
38%
14
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots off Goal
3
8
Blocked Shots
6
8
Shots inside box
9
6
Shots outside box
3
5
Corner Kicks
6
2
Offsides
1
643
Total passes
381
598
Passes accurate
319
14
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
8
Free Kicks
12

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Tottenham
48%
market implied · price 2.00 · opened 48%
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.70 · opened 27%
Everton
26%
market implied · price 3.62 · opened 25%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Tottenham or draw1.2873.4%-0.8 pts
Double chance Everton or draw1.8152.2%-0.7 pts
Double chance either team1.2774.5%+1.5 pts
Draw no bet — Tottenham1.4663.9%-0.3 pts
Draw no bet — Everton2.5936.1%+0.3 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.2277.1%+4.5 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.7156.0%+6.3 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.6934.8%+5.9 pts
Both teams to score1.6058.5%+5.3 pts
Tottenham over 1.5 team goals1.8351.3%+4.8 pts
Everton over 1.5 team goals2.6735.2%+5.2 pts
Tottenham clean sheet3.2529.0%-6.4 pts
Everton clean sheet5.0019.0%-2.7 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.80 · 2-1 8.22 · 1-0 8.64 · 2-0 10.43 · 1-2 11.59

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
24 May 26Tottenham1-0Everton
26 Oct 25Everton0-3Tottenham