Tottenham 0–0 Everton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.69–1.11.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Tottenham to win (40%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Everton created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.1, with the shot count roughly even (14–12, 2–3 on target). Tottenham held 62% of the ball. Everton's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.1 xG despite 3 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Everton shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Tottenham or draw | 1.28 | 73.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance Everton or draw | 1.81 | 52.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.5% | +1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Tottenham | 1.46 | 63.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Everton | 2.59 | 36.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 77.1% | +4.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 56.0% | +6.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.69 | 34.8% | +5.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 58.5% | +5.3 pts |
| Tottenham over 1.5 team goals | 1.83 | 51.3% | +4.8 pts |
| Everton over 1.5 team goals | 2.67 | 35.2% | +5.2 pts |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -6.4 pts |
| Everton clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.80 · 2-1 8.22 · 1-0 8.64 · 2-0 10.43 · 1-2 11.59
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 26 | Tottenham | 1-0 | Everton |
| 26 Oct 25 | Everton | 0-3 | Tottenham |