Watford 1–2 Stoke City
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Watford to win (44%); it finished with Stoke City to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Stoke City carried the greater threat — shots 6–18, 2–6 on target, 4–10 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Watford 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Ravaglia (G)
- 3 S. Coulibaly (D)
- 4 K. Keben (D)
- 5 H. Kyprianou (M)
- 6 M. Pollock (D)
- 7 O. Maamma (M)
- 17 Iker Bravo (M)
- 20 M. Doumbia (F)
- 33 J. Zemura (D)
- 39 E. Kayembe (M)
- 45 S. Mavididi (M)
Bench: M. Antonio, D. Bachmann, L. Kjerrumgaard, Amin Nabizada, O. Traoré, R. Vata, S. Walker, Albert Eames
Stoke City 4-2-3-1
- 1 V. Johansson (G)
- 2 B. Johnson (M)
- 5 L. Graham (D)
- 7 J. McGlynn (M)
- 8 E. Galbraith (M)
- 11 L. Cissé (F)
- 13 J. Devenny (M)
- 16 B. Wilmot (D)
- 17 E. Bocat (D)
- 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré (M)
- 40 M. Talovierov (D)
Bench: B. Gibson, J. Griffiths, G. Hirst, M. Manhoef, B. Pearson, T. Rigo, R. Boženík, L. Bombino, F. Anderson
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.58 | 59.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.2% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 1.65 | 56.6% | +2.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 2.15 | 43.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.14 | 29.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.62 | 35.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Watford clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -0.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.22 · 1-0 8.10 · 2-1 8.84 · 0-1 9.53 · 0-0 10.23
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Stoke City | 3-1 | Watford |
| 20 Dec 25 | Watford | 1-0 | Stoke City |