Watford 1–2 Stoke City
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.39–1.50.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Watford to win (44%); it finished with Stoke City to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Stoke City created the better chances — the xG read 0.4–1.5 and the shot count agreed (6–18, 2–6 on target). Stoke City got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 4). On the balance of chances, the 1–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Watford 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Ravaglia (G)
- 3 S. Coulibaly (D)
- 4 K. Keben (D)
- 5 H. Kyprianou (M)
- 6 M. Pollock (D)
- 7 O. Maamma (M)
- 17 Iker Bravo (M)
- 20 M. Doumbia (F)
- 33 J. Zemura (D)
- 39 E. Kayembe (M)
- 45 S. Mavididi (M)
Bench: M. Antonio, D. Bachmann, L. Kjerrumgaard, Amin Nabizada, O. Traoré, R. Vata, S. Walker, Albert Eames
Stoke City 4-2-3-1
- 1 V. Johansson (G)
- 2 B. Johnson (M)
- 5 L. Graham (D)
- 7 J. McGlynn (M)
- 8 E. Galbraith (M)
- 11 L. Cissé (F)
- 13 J. Devenny (M)
- 16 B. Wilmot (D)
- 17 E. Bocat (D)
- 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré (M)
- 40 M. Talovierov (D)
Bench: B. Gibson, J. Griffiths, G. Hirst, M. Manhoef, B. Pearson, T. Rigo, R. Boženík, L. Bombino, F. Anderson
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.58 | 59.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.2% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 1.65 | 56.6% | +2.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 2.15 | 43.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.14 | 29.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.62 | 35.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Watford clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -0.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.22 · 1-0 8.10 · 2-1 8.84 · 0-1 9.53 · 0-0 10.23
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Stoke City | 3-1 | Watford |
| 20 Dec 25 | Watford | 1-0 | Stoke City |