1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 Holstein Kiel
What the chances were worth
The brain read
1. FC Heidenheim carried the greater threat — shots 19–13, 4–2 on target, 12–7 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
- 2 M. Busch (D)
- 3 J. Schöppner (M)
- 6 P. Mainka (D)
- 16 J. Niehues (F)
- 17 M. Honsak (M)
- 18 A. Vogt (F)
- 19 J. Föhrenbach (D)
- 22 O. Mhamdi (M)
- 24 M. Costly (M)
- 27 M. Heule (D)
- 33 T. Dähne (G)
Bench: Y. Wagner, M. Zrilic, C. Conteh, Frank Feller, P. Hennrich, M. Kaufmann, L. Kerber, L. Paqarada, T. Siersleben
Holstein Kiel 4-1-4-1
- 1 T. Weiner (G)
- 8 G. Balzi (M)
- 10 J. Therkelsen (M)
- 13 I. Nekić (D)
- 19 P. Harres (F)
- 20 A. Kaprálik (M)
- 26 D. Zec (D)
- 27 I. Ugoh (M)
- 28 J. Meffert (M)
- 32 H. Sekine (D)
- 40 Leon Parduzi (D)
Bench: N. Madsen, Mark Richter Monserrat, Lio Rothenhagen, S. Skrzybski, Niko Takahashi Cendagorta, T. Tasdelen, J. Tolkin, T. Wiese, G. de Regt
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw | 1.39 | 67.5% | -4.6 pts |
| Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw | 1.63 | 57.5% | +5.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.66 | 56.0% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Holstein Kiel | 2.11 | 44.0% | +6.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 82.9% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 63.5% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.18 | 43.2% | +1.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.41 | 65.5% | +2.1 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.78 | 52.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Holstein Kiel over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.4% | +5.3 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.38 · 2-1 8.87 · 1-2 10.27 · 2-2 10.36 · 1-0 11.94
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).