Avellino 1–1 Palermo
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Avellino carried the greater threat — shots 15–9, 5–2 on target, 9–4 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Avellino 4-3-1-2
- 4 A. Izzo (D)
- 7 L. Pandolfi (F)
- 8 L. Di Maggio (M)
- 10 R. Russo (F)
- 20 M. Palumbo (M)
- 23 M. Venturi (D)
- 27 B. Moruzzi (M)
- 29 T. Cancellotti (D)
- 39 M. Besaggio (M)
- 50 T. Martinelli (G)
- 56 P. Enrici (D)
Bench: S. Di Paolo, E. Adamo, Thomas Berenbruch, T. Biasci, W. Cheddira, A. Di Bitonto, G. Faticanti, A. Iannarilli, F. Missori, L. Palmiero, M. Sala, D. Sounas
Palermo 3-4-2-1
- 3 T. Augello (M)
- 5 A. Palumbo (M)
- 8 J. Segre (M)
- 9 D. Vavassori (M)
- 10 F. Ranocchia (M)
- 11 E. Gyasi (M)
- 13 M. Bani (D)
- 14 M. Fortin (G)
- 20 J. Pohjanpalo (F)
- 84 T. Cassandro (D)
- 93 F. Barba (D)
Bench: N. Balagušs, A. Bozzolan, P. Ceccaroni, N. Estévez, A. Gabrielloni, C. Gomes, G. Magnani, M. Nespola, N. Pierozzi, D. Johnsen
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Avellino or draw | 1.77 | 53.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Double chance Palermo or draw | 1.25 | 75.1% | +3.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.8% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Avellino | 2.68 | 34.7% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Palermo | 1.43 | 65.3% | +6.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.5% | +3.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 49.4% | +3.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 29.2% | +3.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.74 | 53.5% | +2.3 pts |
| Avellino over 1.5 team goals | 3.06 | 30.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Palermo over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.3% | +4.7 pts |
| Avellino clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Palermo clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.11 · 0-1 6.93 · 1-2 8.23 · 0-0 8.99 · 0-2 9.52
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Palermo | 2-0 | Avellino |
| 20 Dec 25 | Avellino | 2-2 | Palermo |