Celta Vigo 1–1 Malaga
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.90–0.43.
The brain read
Celta Vigo created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–0.4 and the shot count agreed (17–12, 5–2 on target). Celta Vigo's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Celta Vigo shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 1.17 | 81.0% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance Malaga or draw | 2.13 | 44.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta Vigo | 1.25 | 74.5% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Malaga | 3.64 | 25.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.06 | 46.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.53 | 26.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.93 | 48.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 1.88 | 49.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Malaga over 1.5 team goals | 4.17 | 22.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | +2.5 pts |
| Malaga clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -0.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.97 · 1-1 6.62 · 2-0 7.32 · 2-1 7.92 · 0-0 8.94
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 11:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).