Le Mans 2–2 Lens
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Lens carried the greater threat — shots 12–16, 4–6 on target, 11–12 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
- 1 E. Hatfout (G)
- 5 H. Voyer (D)
- 10 J. Vercruysse (M)
- 11 A. Bourabaa (M)
- 14 L. Mafouta (F)
- 15 N. Boissé (D)
- 17 S. Yohou (D)
- 22 L. Calodat (M)
- 25 D. Guèye (F)
- 26 R. Bamba (M)
- 29 L. Bretelle (M)
Bench: H. Diallo, N. Kocik, Y. Larouci, B. Brahimi, A. Lauray, A. Rabillard, D. Sidibé, Raúl Torrente, D. Traoré
Lens 3-4-2-1
- 2 R. Aguilar (M)
- 5 A. Bulatović (M)
- 10 F. Thauvin (M)
- 11 O. Édouard (F)
- 14 M. Udol (M)
- 19 A. Sima (M)
- 22 M. Skóraś (D)
- 24 J. Gradit (D)
- 27 M. Cuisance (M)
- 32 K. Antonio (D)
- 40 R. Risser (G)
Bench: N. Äelik, M. Gorgelin, A. Haidara, T. Hazard, F. Ivanović, J. Kadile, Mezian Mesloub, F. Sotoca, J. Todibo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Le Mans or draw | 2.25 | 41.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance Lens or draw | 1.17 | 80.4% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.21 | 77.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Mans | 3.64 | 25.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lens | 1.25 | 74.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.7% | +3.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61.5% | +5.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.31 | 41.3% | +5.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 | 60.3% | +4.5 pts |
| Le Mans over 1.5 team goals | 2.93 | 31.9% | +3.2 pts |
| Lens over 1.5 team goals | 1.52 | 61.5% | +4.1 pts |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Lens clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -3.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 7.74 · 1-1 7.75 · 0-1 8.88 · 0-2 9.11 · 1-3 11.26
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).