Levante 2–4 Barcelona
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–4; by chance quality the match ran 2.42–2.58.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Barcelona to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 46% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.4–2.6, shots 13–12 with 7–6 on target. Barcelona held 75% of the ball. Barcelona's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.6 xG, 6 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–4 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Levante 4-3-3
- 2 A. Mandi (D)
- 4 Dela (D)
- 5 Hugo Sotelo (M)
- 6 Reque (M)
- 7 Brugui (F)
- 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti (M)
- 10 P. Ratkov (F)
- 13 M. Ryan (G)
- 17 Víctor García (F)
- 22 J. Toljan (D)
- 23 Manu Sánchez (D)
Bench: Jorge Cabello, A. Tape, E. Bardeli, Paco Cortés, Pablo Cuñat, T. Fernández, Yanis Musuayi, IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe, Nacho Pérez, Oriol Rey, Iván Romero, M. Santos
Barcelona 4-3-3
- 1 Joan García (G)
- 5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes (D)
- 7 Fermín (M)
- 8 Pedri (M)
- 10 Lamine Yamal (F)
- 11 Raphinha (F)
- 12 X. Espart (D)
- 16 Rodri (M)
- 17 A. Gordon (F)
- 18 Gerard Martín (D)
- 24 Eric García (D)
Bench: Alejandro Balde, Marc Bernal, João Cancelo, A. Christensen, Gabriel Jesus, Gavi, J. Koundé, D. Livaković, Dani Olmo, W. Szczęsny, H. Abdelkarim, K. Adeyemi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Levante or draw | 5.02 | 19.1% | -3.1 pts |
| Double chance Barcelona or draw | 1.04 | 92.3% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.08 | 88.6% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Levante | 9.84 | 9.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Barcelona | 1.04 | 90.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.05 | 89.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.7% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.69 | 56.6% | +2.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Levante over 1.5 team goals | 4.25 | 22.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Barcelona over 1.5 team goals | 1.15 | 80.8% | +2.6 pts |
| Levante clean sheet | 17.00 | 5.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Barcelona clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.4% | -1.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-3 8.32 · 0-2 8.76 · 1-3 9.64 · 1-2 10.08 · 0-4 10.36
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 14:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 26 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Levante |
| 23 Aug 25 | Levante | 2-3 | Barcelona |