Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Lille carried the greater threat — shots 13–8, 6–1 on target, 11–5 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. Lille held 63% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lille 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Özer (G)
- 3 N. Ngoy (D)
- 4 Alexsandro Ribeiro (D)
- 6 N. Bentaleb (M)
- 7 D. Bakwa (M)
- 10 H. Haraldsson (M)
- 15 R. Perraud (D)
- 17 N. Mukau (M)
- 18 A. Ueda (F)
- 19 B. Önal (M)
- 22 Tiago Santos (D)
Bench: B. André, O. Gill, O. Giroud, M. Kjærgaard, E. Mbappé, T. Nianzou, G. Perrin, O. Sahraoui, C. Verdonk
Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
- 2 L. Maronnier (D)
- 3 A. Ouzenadji (D)
- 4 M. Diaz (D)
- 6 A. Monfray (D)
- 7 K. Diawara (M)
- 8 M. Diop (M)
- 9 J. Le Douaron (F)
- 17 A. Mille (M)
- 22 H. Picard (M)
- 29 D. Karim (M)
- 33 P. Beach (G)
Bench: I. Soukouna, Enisio Carneiro, Noah Donkor, I. Gomis, H. Konaté, Y. Kone, T. Nkada, R. Ripart, Lassana Simakha
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lille or draw | 1.10 | 86.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance Estac Troyes or draw | 2.83 | 33.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.17 | 80.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lille | 1.13 | 83.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Estac Troyes | 5.55 | 16.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 78.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 58.0% | +3.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.2% | +3.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.81 | 51.4% | +4.2 pts |
| Lille over 1.5 team goals | 1.46 | 64.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Estac Troyes over 1.5 team goals | 4.24 | 22.2% | +3.1 pts |
| Lille clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | -2.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.00 · 1-0 7.20 · 2-1 7.91 · 1-1 8.68 · 3-0 9.59
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 12:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).