Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.00–1.10.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Manchester United to win (41%); it finished with Manchester City to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 33% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–1.1, shots 16–6 with 3–2 on target. Manchester United got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 2). Manchester United's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 3 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Manchester United or draw | 1.69 | 55.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance Manchester City or draw | 1.36 | 69.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Manchester United | 2.24 | 41.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Manchester City | 1.60 | 58.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 61.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 41.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 64.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Manchester United over 1.5 team goals | 2.16 | 43.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Manchester City over 1.5 team goals | 1.79 | 52.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.2 pts |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +1.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.54 · 1-2 8.73 · 2-2 10.62 · 2-1 10.68 · 0-1 11.21
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Manchester City |
| 14 Sep 25 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Manchester United |