Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Manchester United to win (41%); it finished with Manchester City to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 33% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Manchester United carried the greater threat — shots 16–6, 3–2 on target, 6–2 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Manchester United or draw | 1.69 | 55.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance Manchester City or draw | 1.36 | 69.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Manchester United | 2.24 | 41.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Manchester City | 1.60 | 58.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 61.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 41.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 64.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Manchester United over 1.5 team goals | 2.16 | 43.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Manchester City over 1.5 team goals | 1.79 | 52.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.2 pts |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +1.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.54 · 1-2 8.73 · 2-2 10.62 · 2-1 10.68 · 0-1 11.21
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Manchester City |
| 14 Sep 25 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Manchester United |